Week 1 does not a season make, and a sparkling debut doesn’t always lead to a crown (looking at you, 2025 Joe Burrow and the royal scourge that is turf toe).
But boy is it fun to overreact.
Today, we’re assessing the field after the conclusion of Week 1 and making bold overreaches about who could win MVP this season.
After last year’s first week of games, the eventual winner, Matthew Stafford, was at +3500 odds, which implies a less than 3 percent chance of winning. The favorite was Lamar Jackson, who was later hampered by injuries and finished with a career-low rushing output.
All that to say: What I said at the beginning! But let’s prognosticate anyway.
NFL MVP odds: Who is in the lead after Week 1?
Enter: The Iceman.
OK, sure, Caleb Williams was already in the top 10 to start the season, but only barely. With a 59-point first game (269 yards, 72.4 percent completion rate, two TDs), Williams leaped up the board and the conversation. He is now ahead of Joe Burrow on DraftKings at +700, tied with Burrow on BetMGM (+900) and just behind him on FanDuel (+850 vs. +900). That puts Williams in the top three or four depending on the book.
I asked our Chicago Bears reporter Kevin Fishbain how seriously we should take this first outing and to lay out the case for Williams this year.
“It’s very strange to type the words ‘Bears’ and ‘MVP’ and ‘quarterback’ in the same paragraph and not have the word processor (remember those?) reject it, considering the league’s charter franchise has a grand total of one Most Valuable Player winner, and it was Walter Payton in 1977.” Fishbain said. “But that’s a sign of how high Williams’ ceiling is.
“He was dialed in all summer, and you could tell he had made improvements. The operation was smoother. His throws were crisp. He lost weight and looked even faster. Then all he did in Week 1 was have a performance with a high completion rate and four total touchdowns … and he is capable of more. The 59-point outburst was a sign that with Ben Johnson calling plays, this offensive line protecting him and this collection of talent around him, Williams could put up some serious numbers.”
Da Bears!
Who are the Week 1 NFL passing leaders since 2020?
Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen
But OK, Chicago, let’s contain our excitement about Williams for a moment because to win the MVP, he has to go through the perennial MVP final boss: Josh Allen.
After a signature performance against a team that used to have his number (Houston), Allen remains the favorite for MVP, and the Buffalo Bills look formidable with coach Joe Brady. As has become the norm over the past few years, Allen is the one to beat in this awards race.
Jackson and Burrow held pretty solid over their first weeks, after starting high in the odds and expectations.
Two other QBs who soared in Week 1? Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence. Purdy and Lawrence were around a 5 percent implied probability of winning before Week 1 and both had a nice little bump up the board, though still sit around an implied 6.25 percent chance.
Purdy showed out in Australia with three touchdowns against the rival Los Angeles Rams, who, to be fair, appeared to be plagued by airplane-leg syndrome.
Lawrence, meanwhile, finished Week 1 with 18-of-23 passing for 245 yards and four (4!) touchdowns against a Myles Garrett-less Cleveland Browns defense. Taken with the way Lawrence finished last season (well! 19 TDs and just one interception over his final six regular-season games), could he be on a true resurgence? Or is regression ahead?
Justin Herbert trending down
Now, the reaction to the Los Angeles Chargers’ first outing is probably one of the major overreactions of Week 1. Give them a few weeks before we can say they were the most overhyped team in the league (not even the most overhyped team in Los Angeles, some might say?).
After a shock loss to the Arizona Cardinals, in which Herbert had one touchdown, one interception and was sacked three times, the QB dropped from third in the odds to out of the top 10.
The Mike McDaniel era in L.A. is off to a sputtering start.
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